13. Strategic and Competitive Plans

(c) Copyright Custom Decision Support, Inc. (1990, 1998)

These notes outline the construction of the strategic and competitive plan for a commercial business unit.  It has been put into these set of Information Systems Planning Notes to allow the planners to examine the issues of the firm. 

1. Business Definition

1.1. Products

What products and services do you intend to sell?

This description should be as specific or as general as this stage of development will permit. Try to be as specific as possible. The product definition limits the range of the business that will be considered. The more specific the product, the easier it is to define the means of production. Recognize that the character of the products may change as the business is redefined during the development process.

At a minimum, specify the use of the product and service to the customer and user.

1.2. Applications/Customers

To whom will you sell the products and services and who will use them?

The identities of buyers, specifiers, and users of the products and services are critical for defining the business. It should be noted that the buyers, specifiers, and users may be different individuals with widely different needs. All are considered to be customers.

If the product will be purchased more than once, either through a distributor or through subsequent processing where the identity of the product is maintained, (i.e. a Dacron Shirt) all customers should be identified. If the product loses its identity (i.e. sulfuric acid in a metal pickling process), subsequent elements of the use channel need not be identified.

If feasible, key perceived customer benefits should be identified along with the customers.

2. Environmental Analysis

2.1. Geographic Framework

How are the markets structured geographically?

Where do you plan to participate?

Markets, for this item, refer to the any possible customers for the product. The geographic market structure consists of those who would purchase the product; where they are located; and how much they might purchase. Indicate the market structure based on geography adopted by the Division, Department or the firm.

2.2. Strategic Market Framework

How are markets defined?

Markets are generally defined in terms of the characteristics of the customers or the end user. Usually the markets are based on how the customers use the product or to whom they sell. Indicate how this business defines its markets.

2.3. Strategic Market Segments

How are customers grouped?

There are multiple purposes to group customers. They are traditionally grouped as markets or by a characteristic of the account (i.e. national accounts). Other types of segmentation can be used for marketing and planning purposes. Indicate how the business groups its customers into market segments.

2.4. Competitive Advantage

2.4.1. Customer Relations

What advantages do we have over competition regarding historical relations with direct customers, the distribution channel, and the end users?

Competitive advantage can derived from a preference of our customers to deal with specific aspects of the firm such as individual people, the business, the organization, or the firm in general. Indicate what advantage the business has in your relationship. Indicate how you verify the relationship is real.

2.4.2. Product Performance

What advantages do we have over competition regarding performance of our product in delivering customer benefits?

Product performance must be evaluated in terms of the benefits it provides to the customer. Indicate what overall performance advantage your product has over competitive products and technologies. Comparative product performance against competition is covered in detail in the next section, Threat Analysis.

2.4.3. Perceived Quality

What advantages do we have over competition regarding the perceived product quality as viewed by direct customers, the distribution channel, and the end users?

Product quality, here, refers to the overall view of the product's ability to exceed customers' expectations. Indicate your perception of how customers view your offering compared with competition. List all customers including: the direct customer, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and users.

2.4.4. Customer Support

What advantages do we have over competition regarding perceived customer support?

Customer support can be critical to obtain competitive advantage. Indicate the nature and structure of customer support for this business and the competitive advantage that it provides. List all customers including: the direct customer, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and users.

2.4.5. Technology

What advantages do we have over competition regarding delivery of technological solutions to problems?

Delivery of technology to the customer generally involves special knowledge that your business has acquired and is husbanding. The ability to deliver technological solutions to customers' problems can represent a signficant competitive advantage. Indicate the types of technological expertise that your organization can deliver to the customer and how that translates into competitive advantage.

2.4.6. Cost Position

What cost advantage do we have over competition?

Having competitively low cost is a potential competitive advantage and always a financial benefit. Indicate what real and potential cost advantage this business has. Identify the source of that advantage (i.e., scale or technology)..i. Low Cost Producer;

2.4.7. Proprietary Position

What Proprietary advantage do we have over the competition?

What advantages does the proprietary position give us.

Proprietary position is obtained by legal rights to use intellectual property. These include: patents on products, process, uses, or designs; copyrights; trademarks and tradenames; and trade secrets. Include in this category business information that could be critical for running the business or competing. Indicate what significant advantage the proprietary position gives the business.

2.4.8. Geographic

What advantages do we have over competition regarding do to the location of our manufacture and business?

The old real estate truism, "Three most important features of a property are location, location, and location" has value in all businesses. The location of the business and its manufacturing can give competitive advantage. Indicate what, if any, competitive advantage is obtained from the location of this business and the geographic location of the firm.

2.4.9. Practice

What advantages do we have over competition regarding how our customers operate?

The way customers run their businesses can be of advantage to your business. Indicate an advantage that is derived from your customers' business practices. This can include their processes or business operations.

3. Threat and Opportunity Assessment

3.1. Competitive Segmentation

3.1.1. Vulnerabilty Segments

How are the customers grouped to represent their vulnerability to competitive threat?

Which customers or individuals make up each segment?

The vulnerability segments represent groupings of customers that reflect their likely response to an attempt at penetration by an aggressive competitor. Indicate how the segments are to be defined. This may be outlined either in terms of expected behavior or by specific benefits and characteristics that protect from competition or exposure it toward competition.

3.1.2. Opportunity Segments

How are the customers to be grouped to represent the opportunity for new business?

Which customer or individuals make up each segment?

The opportunity segments represent groupings of potential customers that reflect their likely response to our penetration attempt. Indicate how the segments are to be defined. This may be outlined either in terms of expected behavior or by specific benefits and characteristics that favor our offerings.

3.2. World-wide Competitors

Who are the competitors in this business?

Indicate in-kind and functional, existing and likely near-term competitors. These are competitors which are in the market or have made some indications of short term entry. Identify the products and the market segments in which they are active.

3.2.1. Functional Share

What is the functional market share?

The functional market share is the part of the total market your product controls for delivering the appropriate customer benefit. The competition includes both in-kind, in-type, and functional. Indicate share by market and geographically.

3.2.2. In-Kind Share

What is the in-kind market share?

The in-kind market share is the part of the total market your product controls compared with all other in-kind or "drop-in" competitors. Note that in-kind competition may include products that are chemically or structurally very different. The only requirement is that the customer views them as functionally equivalent and readily substituted in his process.B. World-wide Competitors

3.2.3. Growth

What is the growth of the competitors in your markets and regions?

Indicate the growth in physical volume by market and by geographic region. Include both past history and expected patterns. Identify the source of the information and comment on its reliability.

3.3. Competitors' Position

3.3.1. Competitor Forecast

What are the competitors' sales and sales forecast?

Indicate the best estimate of their historical physical sales and our estimate of their forecast. Indicate the markets for which the sales are targeted, if feasible. Identify the units of sales.

3.3.2. Competitors' Advantage

3.3.2.1. Customer Relations

What advantages do we believe our competitors have regarding historical relations with direct customers, the distribution channel, and the end users?

Competitive advantage can derived from a preference of our customers to deal with specific elements of our competition, such as his sales or technical people, his business, his organization, or his Corporation in general. Indicate what advantage the competition has regarding to his customer relations. Indicate how you verify that the relationship is real.

3.3.2.2. Product Performance

What advantages does the competition have regarding performance of our product in delivering customer benefits?

Product performance must be evaluated in terms of the benefits it gives to the customer. Indicate what overall competitive performance advantage the competitive products and technology have over your products.

3.3.2.3. Quality

What advantages does the competition have regarding the perceived product quality, as viewed by direct customers, the distribution channel, and the end users?

Product quality, here, refers to the overall view of the product's ability to exceed customers' expectations. Indicate your perception of how customers view competitive offerings compared with yours. List all customers including: the direct customer, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and users.

3.3.2.4. Customer Support

What advantages does the competition have regarding perceived customer support?

Customer support can be critical to obtain competitive advantage. Indicate the nature and structure of customer support that competitive businesses offer and the competitive advantage that they gain from it. List all customers including: the direct customer, wholesalers, distributors, dealers, and users.

3.3.2.5. Technology

What advantages does the competition have regarding delivery of technological solutions to problems?

Delivery of technology to the customer generally involves special knowledge that your business has acquired and is husbanding. The ability to deliver technological solutions to the customers' problems can represent a signficant competitive advantage. Indicate the types of technological expertise that your competition can deliver to the customer and how that translates into competitive advantage.

3.3.2.6. Cost Position

What cost advantage does the competition have?

Having competitively low cost is a potential competitive advantage and always a financial benefit. Indicate what real and potential cost advantage competition has. Identify the source of that advantage (i.e., scale or technology).

3.3.2.7. Proprietary Position

What proprietary advantage does the competition have?

What advantages does that proprietary position give them?

Proprietary position is obtained by legal rights to use intellectual property. These include: patents on products, process, uses, or designs; copyrights; trademarks and tradenames; and trade secrets. Include in this category business information that could be critical for running the business or competing. Indicate what significant proprietary position the competition has and what advantage it gives his business.

3.3.2.8. Geographically

What advantages does the competition have regarding the location of his manufacture and business?

The location of the business and its manufacturing can give competitive advantage. Indicate what, if any, competitive advantage is obtained from the geographic location of the competitors. In particular, global trade issues can be critical. Indicate any such issues and advantages to location.

3.3.2.9. Practice

What advantages does the competition have regarding how our customers operate?

The way customers run their businesses can be of advantage to your competitors' businesses. Indicate any advantage that is derived from their customers' business practices. This can include their processes or business operations.

3.3.3. Resources

3.3.3.1. Capacity

What is the manufacturing capacities of the competition?

How do we expect those capacities to change?

Historically, sales share has been highly correlated with manufacturing share for materials and many industrial products. It is important to track the manufacturing capabilities of competitors. Recent changes in that capability may indicate a change in expectations for that business by a competitor. Indicate the capacity of the major existing and potential competitors and any recent changes expected in that capacity.

3.3.3.2. Allied Products

What other products does the competition sell to our customers?

In what other businesses do they participate?

Many industrial products are sold by combined sales forces that sell several products to the same customers. The ability of a competitor to gain strength and credibility by selling allied products represents a potential competitive advantage. Indicate all such situations for the major existing and potential competitors.

3.3.3.3. Financial

What is the financial situation of the competition?

Could they sustain a price war?

The financial ability of a competitor to sustain low earnings or even losses is a measure of financial strength. That strength can translate into aggressive action. It does not reflect competitor's willingness to sustain those conditions. Indicate the for overall financial situation for the major competitors.

3.3.3.4. Technology

What is the competition's technology exploitation capability?

The technologies and R&D capabilities of a competitor reflect options that he may wish to employ. Indicate the technological strengths and abilities of the major existing and potential competitors.

3.3.4. Competitors' Intention

3.3.4.1. Position

What is the intended position or mission of the competition?

How important is this business to them?

The likely behavior of a competitor should depend on how he views his business. Indicate our perception of the competitor's view of his business. Identify how important it is him.

3.3.4.2. Targets

What are competitors' target market shares?

Do they view the market as stable?

Indicate what share of the market you believe the major competitors wish to obtain. Market stability reflect both growth and changes in market share. Stable markets reflect established relationships among customers and their suppliers. Indicate how stable you think the competitor believes the market to be.

3.3.4.3. View of the Our Firm

How does the competition view the firm?

Indicate how you feel competitors view the firm, in general, and this business in particular. Comment on the their perception of how important this business is to the firm. Indicate how we know this.

3.3.4.4. Pricing

How does the competition price products?

Indicate pricing policy of the competitors. Identify who, each competitor believes, is the price leader in this market. Is there a difference geographically?

3.4. Competitive Assessment

3.4.1. Price Response

How will the competition respond to a price decrease or an increase?

Indicate this for both major and minor price changes. Identify the size of the price changes. Comment on historical experience with these competitors. Is there a difference geographically?

3.4.2. Preference

Are these desirable competitors?

Orderly markets are made of "good" competitors. Good competitors compete in a manner which does not disrupt the market or in a fashion that the firm does not wish to match. Indicate the degree to which each of the major existing and potential competitors are desirable.

3.5. Customer Status

3.5.1. Changes in Customers' Products

What changes are expected in the Customers' products or way of doing business that could impact this business?

Indicate what changes in the customers' businesses could impact this business. Identify, if feasible, the specific customers or market or segment of interest. Indicate the likelihood of these changes. Comment on the source of information.

3.5.2. Customers' Competitive Threat

How could the Customer compete against this business?

In some markets the customer can compete directly with this business. Indicate the changes in the business structure that could or have led this to happen. Comment on the source of information.

3.5.3. Changes in End-Users Products

What changes are expected in the End-Users' products that could impact this business?

Indicate what changes in the customers' businesses could impact this business. Identify, if feasible, the specific customers or market or segment of interest. Indicate the likelihood of these changes. Comment on the source of information.

3.5.4. End-User's Competitive Threat

How could the End-User compete against this business?

In some markets the end-user of the product can compete directly with this business. Indicate the changes in the business structure that could or have let this to happen. Comment on the source of information.

3.6. Technology

3.6.1. Type

What key technological changes will impact this industry?

Technology encompasses scientific and engineering issues and changes in the way business is done. Indicate what technological changes will impact this business over the next ten years. Describe these technologies.

3.6.2. Impact

What is the nature of that impact?

How severe will it be?

How can we take advantage of the technological change?

 
3.6.3. Timing

When will those changes likely occur?

 
3.6.4. Substitution Curves

How fast will the new technologies substitute for the older ones?

Substitution of one technology for another is generally described by a "logistics" or symmetric "S" shaped curve. The penetration of similar technologies within an industry tend to follow the same rate. Indicate in the plot below the substitution history and forecast for key technologies.

3.6.5. Overall Risk

What is the overall competitive risk to our business from technological change?

Risk is measured both in terms of the likelihood of the technological event and the likelihood that the event will have a major impact on the business. Indicate both the likelihood of the event and the impact if that event happens within the specified timing.

3.7. Quality

3.7.1. Key Customer Expectations & Compliance

3.7.1.1. Direct Customers

What are the key expectations of our direct customers?

How well do we serve them?

Total Quality focuses on exceeding customers' expectations. In order to deliver Quality, the key customer expectations need to be identified. The direct customers are those who first receive ownership of the product. Indicate your perception of these customers' expectations and how well you meet them.

3.7.1.2. Other Customers and End-Users

What are the key expectations of our end-users and indirect customers?

How well do we serve them?

Indirect customers and end-users consist of those organizations that use the product after its initial purchase from the firm. Indicate your perception of these customers' expectations and how well you meet them.

3.7.2. Changes in Expectations & Compliance

3.7.2.1. Direct Customers

What changes in direct customer expectations, "Quality", can be expected?

Are we positioned to exceed these expectations?

Change can usually be identified as an opportunity. Since the goal of Quality is to exceed customers' expectations, those expectations can be expected to rise. Indicate what changes in the direct customers' expectations are likely and how your business is positioned to take advantage of those new expectations.

3.7.2.2. Other Customers & End-Users

What changes in end-user and indirect customer expectations, "Quality", can be expected?

Are we positioned to exceed these expectations?

Indicate what changes in the indirect customers' and end users' expectations are likely and how your business is positioned to take advantage of those new expectations.

3.7.3. Improving Quality

3.7.3.1. Complaint Control

What procedures are in place to correct complaints?

Complaints reflect unmet expectations. As such, they represent a source of information and a special area for Quality concerns. Indicate what procedures exist to verify and correct complaint.

3.7.3.2. Monitoring Compliance

What procedures are in place to monitor complaints and corrective measures?

Indicate what procedures are in-place to monitor complaints and assure compliance for corrective action.

3.7.3.3. Requiring Improvement

What programs are in place to assure improved Quality?

Indicate Total Quality programs in place to assure improved Quality. Identify who is responsible for those programs and compliance with plans.

3.8. Other Threats and Opportunities

3.8.1. Environmental

What threats to the business exists due to materials handling, release and disposal?

What measures have been taken to reduce the potnetial difficulties?

What competitive advantage would a proactive solution of these problems give this business?

 
3.8.2. Legal

What legal problems could possibly arise that could endanger the business?

What measures have been taken to reduce the potential difficulty?

What competitive advantage would a proactive solution of the problem give us?

 
3.8.3. Labor

What organized labor problems could possibly arise that could endanger the business?

What measures have been taken to reduce the potential difficulty?

What competitive advantage would a proactive solution of the problem give us?

 
3.8.4. Other Critical Issues

What other problems could possibly arise that could endanger the business?

What measures have been taken to reduce the potential difficulty?

What competitive advantage would a proactive solution of the problem give us?

 
4. Feasible Actions

4.1. Offering Strategy

4.1.1. Customization

How could the development of custom offerings provide competitive advantage in our markets?

How do these relate to customers' needs?

How much will it cost?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous?

Customization includes the development of new grades and products or relabeling to meet individual customer specifications. Indicate they type of customization, the customer need that will be met, the cost, and advantage.

4.1.2. Planned Replacement

How could periodic product replacement provide competitive advantage in our markets?

How do these relate to customers' needs?

How much will it cost?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous?

Periodic replacement consists of introducting new products as replacement of old grades. While this tends to cannibalize existing business, it maintains strong position. A key issue is the removal of old grades. If old grades are still producted, the result of "replacement" is to expand the product line. Indicate whether replacement or product line expansion is envisioned.

4.1.3. Systems Development

How could the development and promotion of an application system provide competitive advantage in our markets?

How much will it cost?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous?

A systems approach focuses on the totality of the chore that the customer needs to accomplish. The firm may be able, in some cases, to offer a group of products and services as a system designed to meet particular needs of the customer (i.e. printing system, X-ray System, etc.). Indicate the potential for strengthening the market position by using a systems approach to the market.

4.2. Sales Programs

4.2.1. Response and Conditions

How will our management respond to a competitive threat at a customer?

What conditions will generate that response?

The nature and speed of response to a competitive threat is a sign of importance that management holds for a customer. Indicate how the organization will respond to a competitve threat and under what conditions.

4.2.2. Timing

How fast will the organization respond?

What needs to be in place to make it happen?

Indicate how quickly the organization will respond and procedures put in place to assure response. Identify who is responsible for the decisions.

4.2.3. New Applications

How will the organization identify new applications for the product?

Who is responsible for identifying and developing new applications?

How will that development be encouraged?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous?

Growth requires the identification of new applications or products. Indicate how those new opportunities are going to be identified. Indicate who is responsible and how those people who have identified opportunities will be rewarded.

4.3. Customer Support Strategy

4.3.1. Customer Support

What customer support program will be provided?

How much will it cost?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous

 
4.3.2. Customer Computing

How could the developemnt of customer computing and information systems provide competitive advantage in our markets?

How much will it cost?

When would iit be advantageous or disadvantageous?

 

Customer computing consists of providing computer support to the firm's customers, distributors, dealers, or end-users. Programs, computer packages, access to centralized information, and system assistance can be provided. Indicate what programs are planned, their costs and potential advantages and disadvantages.

4.4. Pricing Strategy

4.4.1. Controlled Long Term Real Price

How could the assurance of stable, long term, real price provide competitive advantage in our markets?

How much would it cost?

When would it be advantageous or disadvantageous?

Assurance of stable long term price can be obtained by contract or by informal "understandings". Indicate whether such agreements are customary in this market and what advantages to the firm could be obtained by them. Identify whether such agreements are planned.

4.4.2. Maintenance of Price Premium

How do we intend to maintain a price premium?

Maintaining price premium is a key route to sustain profitability of a business. Indicate what price premium this business has been able to sustain and what programs are in place to maintain it.

4.4.3. Conditions to Meet Competitive Price

Under what conditions we will meet a competitive price or bid?

Indicate the conditions where the firm will meet a competitive price or bid. Identify who is responsible to determine price under competitive conditions and how long it will take him to respond. Discuss the consequence of competitive pricing and the probable response of the customers.

4.4.4. Targeting

In what market segments and geographic regions will your business fight to maintain share?

Not all markets or regions are created equal. Indicate which markets and regions are of specific importance. Comment on how that importance will be communicated to competition.

4.5. Manufacturing Strategy

4.5.1. Grade Consolidation

What advantage could be obtained by eliminating product grades or variations?

Grade consolidation can help reduce costs. Indicate the potential advantages to product line consolidation and what, if any, programs are underway to reduce the product offerings.

4.5.2. New Process Development

What process developments could provide major improvement in product quality?

Indicate what process programs are underway to improve quality. Identify who is responsible and when the devleopments will be accomplished.

4.5.3. Elimination of Low Quality

What cost saving could be obtained by elimination of low quality products?

The production of either low quality, broad specification, or non-standard product introduces costs. These costs involve reworking the product, handling materials, disposal costs, and/or reduced pricing. Indicate programs designed to reduce low quality products, their potential savings, and costs, Identify who is responsible for the programs.

4.5.4. Cost Reduction

What cost reduction program is in place to assure the meeting the yield and cost forecast?

 

Indicate what process programs are underway to reduce costs. Identify who is responsible and when the programs will be accomplished.

4.6. Technical Strategy

4.6.1. Key Technologies

What key technologies are being developed to assure a long term competitive advantage?

What resources have been allocated for this function?

 
4.6.2. Needed Inventions

What inventions are needed to provide a "quantum" competitive advantage?

What programs are underway to assure that the business will have these inventions?

Significant competitive advantage can be obtained with major improvements in technology. Indicate the need for such invention, the program, or potential route, for the invention, and the resources that are required. While it is not possible to precisely time invention, it is necessary to have a timing for when such developments are likely.

5. Long Term Forecasts

5.1. Sales

5.1.1. Product Group

What are the historical sales and forecast for the product group?

A product usually can be considered as part of a group of products or benefits that are being given to the customer. For example, a new film product will be a part of all plastic films; a new car door window opener is part of all such devices. It is necessary to understand the history and at least a ten year projection of the product group in order to get an overview of the market. The historical sales and forecast should be in physical units, (pounds, square feet, or units, for example) either as annual sales or as installed units. Note the units being used. Use industry, sales force, and model projections.

5.1.2. Geographic Regions

What are the forecast and historical sales for the product in each part of the world?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

Consider sales of the product geographically. The historical sales and forecast should be in physical units, (pounds, square feet, or units, for example) either as annual sales or as installed units. Use the geographic framework described in the Business Definition. Note the units being used. Use sales force and model projections.

5.1.3. Markets

What are the forecast and historical sales for the product by market segment?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

Consider sales of the product by each market segment. The historical sales and forecast should be in physical units, (pounds, square feet, or units, for example) either as annual sales or as installed units. Use the market segments or the market framework described in the Business Definition section. Note the units being used. Use sales force and model projections.

5.1.4. Total Product Sales

5.1.4.1. Sales Forecast

What are the forecast and historical sales for the product?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

If the business consists of only one one product of the product group, consider total sales of that product. The historical sales and forecast should be in physical units, (pounds, square feet, or units, for example) either as annual sales or as installed units. Note the units being used. Use sales force and model projections.

5.1.4.2. Sales Growth Curve

How do forecasted physical sales compare with a standard sale penetration pattern?

The General Sales Growth Curve is a good description of the maximum speed that sales can grow during the growth phase of the business life cycle. The curve is generated by fitting model to historical data. In addition to a forecast, the model generates an estimate of a growing market potential that the business could grow into, given continuing growth patterns.

5.1.4.3. Econometric Model

How do forecasted physical sales compare with a standard sale pattern?

Econometric Models can be used to forecast sales for mature businesses. Such models are based on the assumption that sales of the product track general economic activity. Compare the sales forecast with the based econometric model available.

5.2. Price

5.2.1. Average Price

What has been the historical price and forecast for the product?

Use the average realized price. If a large variation exists among product grades, use the major grade and indicate the range of variation. Give the price by region or market, whichever is most appropriate for the business.

5.2.2. Experience Curve

5.2.2.1. Curve Projection

What is the "Experience Curve" Price Projection?

A standard for comparison between of price is the "Experience Curve". This curve assumes that "real price" should decrease with accumulated experience of manufacturing the product. The "real price" is the average price discounted for inflation. The accumulated experience is measured by the accumulated sales.

5.2.2.2. Forecast

What is the comparison between the expected price and the "Experience Curve" projection?

Indicate the discount rates for the price. This may be the chemical price index or other appropriate index.

5.2.3. Price Scaling Curve

5.2.3.1. Curve Projection

What is the "Market Scale Curve" Price Projection?

Market scaling is based on the assumption that price is tied directly to the scale of manufacture. The 6/10th rule asserts that revenues should increase with the sales raised to the 6/10th's power. This would follow traditional fixed costs for the chemical process industry.

5.2.3.2. Forecast

What is the competitive price?

What is the comparison between the discounted prices and "Market Scale Price"?

Indicate the expected market scale price, the average price, and the competitive price of the product.

5.2.4. Price Point Distribution

What is the price range of the product line?

Most businesses involve delivering a number of products to customers. These products are usually delivered over a range of prices. Examining the price distribution can identify the intensity of the business and potential opportunities. The price point distribution shows how much product is sold at what price.

5.3. Revenue

What are the historical revenues from the venture and the forecast?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

Revenue is the product of the average price times the physical sales.

5.4. Costs

5.4.1. Yield

What is the historical manufacturing yield and forecast yield?

Yield is the ratio of acceptable product to that which could have been produced based on raw materials expended. Usually acceptable product is that which can be sold for a profit over average direct costs. This definition should become more restrictive with time as the quality assurance program reduces any second, limited use, or wide specification grades or product.

Indicate all assumption in making the yield forecast.

5.4.2. Learning Curve

5.4.2.1. Curve Projection

What is the "Learning Curve" Cost Projection?

A standard for comparison between production and costs is the "Learning Curve". This curve assumes that "real cost" should decrease with accumulated experience of manufacturing the product. The "real cost" is the average cost discounted for inflation. The accumulated experience is measured by the accumulated sales.

5.4.2.2. Forecast

What are the historical costs and forecast based on the "Learning Curve"?

Indicate the discount rate for the cost. This may be the chemical price index or other appropriate index..i. Learning Curve;

5.4.3. Scaling Curve

5.4.3.1. Curve Projection

What is the "Market Scale Curve" Cost Projection?

Market scaling is based on the assumption that cost is tied directly to the scale of manufacture. The 6/10th rule asserts that revenues should increase with the sales raised to the 6/10th's power. This would follow traditional fixed costs for the chemical process industry.

5.4.3.2. Forecast

What is the forecast based solely on improvements due to scale?

Indicate the expected market scale cost, the average cost, and the discounted cost of the product.

5.5. Technologies

What technologies are forecast that could influence our costs in the next ten years?

Indicate and describe technologies that could impact this business over the next ten years.

5.6. Capacity

5.6.1. Process

What is the forecast for capacity?

How will that capacity be obtained?

Capacity should be given in delivered units of physical volume by product.

5.6.2. Feed Stocks

How are feedstocks secured in the long run?

Indicate what programs are underway to assure feedstock availability for this business. Indicate what arrangements have been taken to control prices of feedstocks.

5.7. Investment

What is the forecast for needed investment in physical facilities?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

Indicate all needed facilities, including new equipment, plants, and land. Note if any existing facilities will be retired or if rented, leased or subcontracted facilities will not be used. Otherwise, the new faciities will be viewed as a plant or capability expansion.

5.8. Earnings

What are the historical earnings for this venture and its forecast earnings?

What are the key current business assumptions inherent in this forecast?

Several measures of profitabilty that are typically used. The choice of the appropriate measure depends on the nature of the business. Typically, After Tax Operating Income (ATOI) is used. Other measures, such as After-Tax Earnings or the Cash In-flow, may also be used. Indicate which measure is being used and why.

Indicate all assumptions critical to this forecast. Indicate any discrepancy with the assumptions used for the other financial measures.

5.9. Performance

What is the expected performance of this venture?

There are several overall measures of performance generally used. These include: Cash Return on Investment (CROI), Return on Investment (ROI), Net Present Value (NPV), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The choice of measure depends on the nature of the business and needs of Departmental and Corporate management.

5.10. Graphical Summary

5.10.1. Present Position

How are you doing compared to your competitors? (bubble chart)?

The "Competitive Bubble Chart" displays the relative share, market growth, and volume on a standard chart.

5.10.2. Momentum

How will the share change compared with the market?

The "Momentum Bubble Diagram" displays the change in volume compared to that of the market. This is done for each market. Identify competitors.

5.10.3. Price/volume Momentum

How has price changed compared with volumew?

The "Price/Volume Momentum Bubble Diagram" displays relative changes of volume against relative changes in price for markets.

6. Alternative Scenarios and Risk

6.1. Risk Assessment

6.1.1. Critical Issues

What are the critical issues and concerns regarding this business?

Critical issues represent the problems and themes that require major attention now and in the near future. Indicate the critical issues as specifically as possible. Identify the timing of the issue to be resolved and the reason for its importance.

6.1.2. Sensitivity

What is the impact of these critical issues on long term sales and earnings?

Indicate the potential impact of these critical issues on physical sales and earnings. Long term for this item is 5 years. Indicate the impact as either a percent change or as an increment.

6.2. Alternative Scenarios

6.2.1. Key Events

What key events could materially impact this business?

What is the likelihood of occurance?

What is their probable impact on earnings and sales?

How will they be monitored?

Key events refer specific measurable occurrences that could significantly impact the business. Indicate the events, their likelihood, their impact and the method by which they will be monitored.

6.2.2. Sales Forecasts

What is the range of probable sales?

Indicate the range of probable physical sales. Identify the likelihood of the high and low estimate taking place.

6.2.3. Earnings Forecast

What is the range of probable earnings?

Indicate the range of probable after tax earnings. Identify the likelihood of the high and low estimate taking place.

6.2.4. Competitive Reaction

What is the range of possible competitive reaction to our plans?

Indicate what are the possible reactions of both existing and potential competitors to our plans. Identify manufacturing expansions, pricing, and marketing potential actions.

6.3. Risk Analysis

6.3.1. Assumptions

What are your assumptions regarding the risks involved in this business?

 

 
6.3.2. Earnings and Revenue

How much could fifth year Earnings and Revenue vary?

The range of earnings and revenues can be shown by distributions of each and the bivariate distribution of both. The bivariate distribution is sometimes referred to as an opportunity envelope, since it represents the range of possible outcomes.

6.3.3. Cash In-flow and Investment

How much could fifth year Cash-In-flow and Investment vary?

How Cash Return on Investment vary?

The range of cash-inflow and investment can be shown by distributions of each and the bivariate distribution of both. The bivariate distribution is sometime referred to as an opportunity envelope since it represents the range of possible outcomes.

6.3.4. Contingency Plans

How are you going to react given unexpected major events occuring?

In an ever changing world, contingency planning allows the business to take advantage of opportunities and to minimize the effect of unfortunate occurrences. Indicate the unexpected, but significant, events that must be anticipated; the action that will be taken; and the resources that must be available to go forward.

7. Feasible Business Mission, Goals & Stratey

7.1. Mission

What is the directed mission of this business?

Is this feasible, given the available resources?

What is the "best" alternative mission for the business?

The mission of the business is dictated by what it can do for the firm as a whole. Be specific as to the overall mission for the business. Include not only the general statement, but how it is being interpeted.

7.2. Goals

What should be the "reach goals" for this business?

What are realistic sales and earnings goals for the business?

Business goals are set in terms of earnings, share, revenues, or return. Indicate what goals are being set for this business. Identify who in the organization is setting this goal and whether it is specific to this business or general over a class of businesses. Discuss under what conditions this goal is realistic or counter productive.

7.3. Milestones Time Table

What are the milestones for the ultimate goals?

When will you reach them?

What are the key events or milestones during the span of this strategic plan. Indicate how we will know that each has been acheived and when it can be expected. Identify who is responsible.

7.4. Global Strategy

7.4.1. Segment Strategy

What are key strategic items in each segment?

What are the milestones by segment?

How will you reach them?

Indicate for each key market segment the specific strategy that will be followed in the immediate future. Identify the desired outcome or change and the approach that will be used.

7.4.2. Long Term Strategy

What are key long term action items in each segment?

What are the milestones by segment?

How will you reach them?

Indicate for each key market segment the specific strategy that will be followed in the long term (2 to 5 years). Identify the desired outcome or change and the approach that will be used and the timing.

7.4.3. Geographic Strategy

What are key strategies in each geographic region?

How will you allocate resources by geographic area?

Indicate the geographic regional strategies for this business. Comment on their consistency and the need for coordination. Identify the desired outcome or change and the approach that will be used. The availability of resources can be a critical problem. Identify what shared resources are needed.

7.4.4. Grand Strategy

What is the global approach to this business?

What are the priorities in allocated resources?

Grand strategy relates to the overall approach to the business. It describes the global means by which the goals will be achieved. It is more concerned with "Winning the Peace" than winning individual product or sales battles. Indicate the strategic priniciples that will govern the conduct of this business. Identify which markets and geographic regions will be emphasized and the manner in which business will be conducted.

7.5. Resources

7.5.1. Budget and Funds

What is the distribution and level of funding necessary to successfully implement this strategy?

Indicate required funding for all key functions for this business. Include all contractual assistance as well as internal resources. Indicate funds that may be necessary to implement contingency plans as well as those required for the business plan.

7.5.2. Man-power

What man-power and skills are necessary to successfully implement this strategy?

Indicate required man-power and special skills necessary for all key functions for this business. Exclude contractual assistance unless the nature of business requires inclusion.

7.5.3. Marketing Resources

7.5.3.1. Sales Force

What sales effort is needed to successful implement the sales program?

Indicate the sales effort that will be necessary to successfully execute the marketing program. Compare that levels with the industry standards. Average estimates for various business conditions and structures are shown below. These figures are representive averages. Real businesses typically deviate from them in some manner. Indicate the logic behind either higher or lower levels of commitment.

7.5.3.2. Advertising and Promotion

What funds are needed to successful implement the advertising and promotional program?

Indicate the advertising and promotional effort that will be necessary to successfully execute the marketing program. Compare that levels with the industry standards. Average estimates for various business conditions and structures are shown below. These figures are representive averages. Real businesses typically deviate from them in some manner. Indicate the logic behind either higher or lower levels of commitment.

7.5.3.3. Total Marketing Effort

What total marketing effort is needed to successful implement the sales effort?

Indicate the funds that will be necessary to successfully execute the marketing program. Compare that levels with the industry standards. Average estimates for various business conditions and structures are shown below. These figures are representive averages. Real businesses typically deviate from them in some manner. Indicate the logic behind either higher or lower levels of commitment.

7.5.4. R&D

7.5.4.1. Product Development

What product R&D effort is needed to successful implement the business development effort?

Indicate the funds that will be necessary to successfully execute the product development effort. Compare that levels with the industry standards, if available. Average estimates for various business conditions and structures are shown below based on PIMS data. Unfortunately, the basis for these estimate differ widely from business to business and corporation to corporation. These figures are representive averages of those reported figures. Real businesses typically deviate from them in some manner. Indicate the logic behind either high or low levels of commitment.

7.5.4.2. Process Development

What process R&D effort is needed to successful implement the process development effort?

How strongly are divisional and departmental management committed to these goals, strategies, and long term funding?

Indicate the funds that will be necessary to successfully execute the process development effort. Compare that levels with the industry standards, if available. Average estimates for various business conditions and structures are shown below based on PIMS data. Unfortunately, the basis for these estimate differ widely from business to business and corporation to corporation. These figures are representive averages of those reported figures. Real businesses typically deviate from them in some manner. Indicate the logic behind either high or low levels of commitment.